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Bangladesh’s GDP growth target for the current fiscal year may be revised down to 5.25% from the original 6.75%, driven by multiple floods and a contractionary monetary policy aimed at curbing inflation. The ADB has lowered its projection to 5.1% due to supply chain disruptions from political unrest, while the World Bank reduced its forecast by 1.7 percentage points to 4%, citing uncertainties and data limitations. The IMF revised its estimate to 4.5%, the lowest since FY 2019-20, and an IMF delegation in December projected only 3.8% growth. Inflation remains high at 9.94% in January, despite a target of 8%, up from 6.5% in the original budget. The government aims to reduce inflation to 7% by June. Contributing factors include reduced agricultural output from floods and Bangladesh Bank’s policy rate hikes, further constraining growth.
Real wage growth in Bangladesh has remained negative for 36 consecutive months as inflation consistently outpaces wage increases, forcing low-income households to cut back on food consumption. In January 2024, wage growth stood at 8.16%, 1.78 percentage points below the 9.94% inflation rate, according to BBS data. The widest gap was in July 2023 at 3.73 percentage points. Food inflation has exceeded 9% since May 2023, peaking at 14.63% in urban areas in November 2023. The FAO reported that acute food insecurity surged by 70 lakh people, reaching 2.36 crore in December 2024. A RAPID study found that inflation has pushed 78 lakh people into poverty, including 38 lakh into extreme poverty, with 1 crore more at risk. Despite government efforts to curb inflation to 6-7% by June 2024, economists remain skeptical, warning that rising rice prices and prolonged inflation will continue eroding real incomes.
Bangladesh’s GDP growth target for the current fiscal year may be revised down to 5.25% from the original 6.75%, driven by multiple floods and a contractionary monetary policy aimed at curbing inflation. The ADB has lowered its projection to 5.1% due to supply chain disruptions from political unrest, while the World Bank reduced its forecast by 1.7 percentage points to 4%, citing uncertainties and data limitations. The IMF revised its estimate to 4.5%, the lowest since FY 2019-20, and an IMF delegation in December projected only 3.8% growth. Inflation remains high at 9.94% in January, despite a target of 8%, up from 6.5% in the original budget. The government aims to reduce inflation to 7% by June. Contributing factors include reduced agricultural output from floods and Bangladesh Bank’s policy rate hikes, further constraining growth.
Bangladesh remained the world’s top shipbreaking destination in 2024, dismantling 130 ships, despite a 23.5% decline from the previous year due to dollar shortages and weak demand. Of the 409 ships dismantled globally, 255 ended up in South Asia, with 80% scrapped in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan under substandard conditions. A 52% decline in the total weight of imported scrap vessels further impacted the industry. Bangladesh faced one of the worst accidents, where an oil tanker explosion killed six workers and critically injured six others in Chattogram. The shipbreaking sector is struggling as steel re-rolling mills, its primary buyers, suffer from reduced public construction projects. With 150 shipbreaking yards, only 30 remain active, while seven have achieved “green” status. Industry leaders predict continued challenges unless construction demand recovers, questioning the sector’s viability amid rising losses and high operational costs.
Bangladesh’s overseas migration dropped by 27.4% in 2024, with migrant numbers falling to 10,09,146 from 13,90,811 in 2023, according to Ami Probashi’s Annual Report 2024. The sharp decline, particularly between May and September, was attributed to political and economic instabilities. Despite this, female BMET registration nearly doubled, rising from 2.78% in 2023 to 4.79% in 2024. Saudi Arabia remained the top destination, accounting for 62.17% of total migration (627,000 workers), while Malaysia saw a decline to 93,000 workers due to policy changes. General Training Enrolment for overseas jobs dropped by 52.5% to 112,166. Dhaka sent the most migrants (2.64 lakh), followed by Chattogram (2.31 lakh). Experts suggested that better training, gender-inclusive policies, and improved foreign labour agreements could help revitalize the migration sector. The report also highlighted a shift in female employment trends, with more women opting for tech-related jobs over traditional domestic roles.
Bangladesh’s power demand is projected to hit 18,000MW this summer, while the highest possible generation is 17,260MW, leading to a 740MW shortfall. During Ramadan, demand is expected to reach 15,700MW, with a government target of zero load shedding. Post-Ramadan, load shedding may rise to 1,400MW. Gas supply to power plants will increase to 1,200 mmcfd, enabling up to 6,200MW generation from gas-fired plants. LNG imports will rise to four cargoes per month from 2-3 cargoes. Cooling loads, mainly air conditioners consuming 6,000MW, may be reduced by encouraging 25-26°C settings. The PDB requested $4 billion to ensure stable power supply, with priority funding from the finance division. To manage shortages, strategies include rescheduling irrigation pump use, early shopping center closures, and reducing excessive lighting. The Matarbari coal plant’s power purchase agreement will be finalized, with Tk 8.40 per unit pricing, cheaper than Payra, Rampal, and Adani plants.
TRANSFORM, an impact accelerator led by Unilever, the UK Government, and EY, announced grants of up to BDT 10 million each for two Bangladeshi SMEs focused on climate resilience. Deshifarmer, an agri-tech platform, connects farmers directly to consumers, aiming to benefit 3,000 farmers and 20,000 consumers in its first year. Techno Plastic Solution addresses ocean plastic pollution by improving collection infrastructure and launching a pilot program in Kuakata to collect 100 tonnes of plastic waste monthly. The Bangladesh Climate Challenge, launched in October 2023, supports enterprises working on climate resilience through funding and resources. This collaboration between Unilever, the UK Government, and EY marks their first joint effort in Bangladesh. TRANSFORM has previously supported 10 other enterprises in Bangladesh, impacting over three million lives.
A proposed hike in gas prices by Petrobangla has sparked major concerns among industrialists in Bangladesh, fearing economic harm. Industrial leaders argue that the increase, if approved, could lead to factory closures, job losses, and reduced industrial output, harming economic growth and potentially causing social unrest. Critics like Kutubuddin Ahmed and Abdullah Hil Rakib highlight that rising power and production costs already challenge competitiveness. The proposal affects new and existing gas users, with significant cost increases tied to LNG imports and additional charges. Industry leaders urge the government to reconsider the proposal, warning of the detrimental impact on both industries and the broader economy.
In FY 2023-24, the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) faced operating losses due to reduced trading, fewer IPOs, and increased costs. The DSE’s core revenue of Tk 125 crore fell short of expenses, causing a Tk 20 crore loss, while the CSE incurred a Tk 10 crore loss with Tk 31 crore in core revenue. Both exchanges relied on fixed deposit interest to achieve net profits of Tk 61 crore (DSE) and Tk 31 crore (CSE).
Declining daily turnovers, down to Tk 622 crore for the DSE, coupled with poor fund management and risky investments in troubled banks and NBFIs, exacerbated challenges. Experts recommend reforms, product diversification, and stronger company listings to revitalize the market. Meanwhile, 95% of brokerage houses are struggling with operating losses due to sluggish trading.
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Sales of heavy-duty trucks and covered vans rebounded in 2024, driven by pent-up demand and fleet replacement cycles, despite economic uncertainties. According to BRTA data, covered van registrations increased by 57% to 2,949 in 2024 from 1,874 in 2023, while truck registrations grew 16.5% to 2,671 from 2,292.
Bangladesh's power demand is projected to hit 18,000MW this summer, while the highest possible generation is 17,260MW, leading to a 740MW shortfall. During Ramadan, demand is expected to reach 15,700MW, with a government target of zero load shedding.
Bangladesh remained the world's top shipbreaking destination in 2024, dismantling 130 ships, despite a 23.5% decline from the previous year due to dollar shortages and weak demand. Of the 409 ships dismantled globally, 255 ended up in South Asia, with 80% scrapped in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan under substandard conditions.