Published at: The Financial Express, April 10, 2019
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that the economy of Bangladesh would grow by 7.30 per cent in 2019.
The April 2019 version of the World Economic Outlook (WEO), released on Tuesday morning in Washington, DC, unveiled the projection. The title of the outlook is ‘Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery.’
The IMF also projected that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh would face slower growth of 7.0 per cent both in 2020 and 2021.
It added that the average inflation rate would be 5.40 per cent in the current year.
Bangladesh estimates its annual GDP growth on its financial year basis (July-June). The IMF report, however, did not mention it and made the projection on the calendar year basis.
“Data refer to calendar years, except in the case of a few countries that use fiscal years; Table F lists the economies with exceptional reporting periods for national accounts and government finance data for each country,” said a note in the report.
The ‘Table F’ lists 29 economies, including four from South Asia — Bhutan, India, Pakistan and Nepal, but not Bangladesh.
The latest outlook of the IMF also projected that the global economy would grow by 3.3 per cent in the current year, which was 3.6 per cent in the past year.
“Reflecting the slowdown in activity in the latter half of 2018 and the first half of 2019, global growth is set to moderate from 3.6 per cent in 2018 to 3.3 per cent in 2019, and then to return to 3.6 per cent in 2020,” said the report.
Thus IMF cut down its global growth forecast with downside risks, blaming rising trade tensions between the US and China, loss of momentum in Europe and uncertainty surrounding Brexit. It, however, increased China’s GDP growth forecast marginally to 6.3 per cent for 2019.
A media briefing was also held to formally unveil the WEO on the eve of World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings in 2019. Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor of IMF, presented the highlights of the flagship report of the IMF at its headquarter in Washington.
Gita Gopinath, also the IMF chief economist, termed the current period as ‘a delicate moment for the global economy’ but expressed optimise by saying cautioned that if downside risks did not materialise and the policy support put in place was effective, global growth should rebound.
The WEO also said beyond 2020, global growth will be sustained at around 3.6 per cent by the increase in the relative size of economies, such as those of China and India, which are projected to have robust growth by comparison to slower-growing advanced and emerging market economies.
“The global growth forecast reflects a combination of waning cyclical forces and a return to tepid potential growth in advanced economies; a precarious recovery in emerging market and developing economies, driven to a great extent by economies currently experiencing severe macroeconomic distress; and complex factors that shape the prospects for potential growth in both groups,” the WEO added.
