The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday (October 15) projected that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth of Bangladesh would fall to 7.4 percent in the current fiscal year of 2019-2020 compared to the 8.13 percent growth the country achieved in FY 2019.
The IMF’s projected GDP growth for the current FY is also much lower than the government’s target of 8.2 percent and the Asian Development Bank’s projection of 8 percent and slightly higher than the World Bank’s recent projection of 7.2 percent.
The October 2019 version of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) unveiled the projection. The title of the outlook is ‘Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers’.
The IMF also projected that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth of Bangladesh will be slower in coming years.
Bangladesh estimates annual GDP growth on the basis of its financial year (July-June). The Washington-based global monetary watchdog, however, projects the GDP growth on calendar year basis.
Earlier, the IMF estimated the country’s GDP growth at 7.6 percent for the ongoing fiscal year (FY), 2019-20, in its latest staff report on Article IV Consultation Mission of Bangladesh. It was 8.0 percent for FY 19.
IMF explained in it’s economic outlook that the Rising trade and geopolitical tensions have increased uncertainty about the future of the global trading system and international cooperation which is taking a toll on business confidence, investment decisions and global trade.
The world economy is conservatively projected to grow at 3.0 percent in 2019, a significant drop from 2017-18 for emerging markets and developing economies as well as advanced economies, before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2020.
However, a slightly higher growth rate is projected for 2021-24. This global growth pattern reflects a major downturn and projected recovery in a group of emerging market economies.
By contrast, growth is expected to moderate into 2020 and beyond for a group of systemic economies comprising the United States, Euro area, China and Japan, which together account for close to half of the global GDP, according to the WEO.
Though, the global economy is in a “synchronised slowdown”, GDP growth of Bangladesh will be the highest among all Asian countries this year, according to that outlook by IMF.
In the index of 189 countries, only two countries, Caribbean country Dominica and African South Sudan, may see higher growth than Bangladesh, posting 9.4 percent and 7.9 percent respectively.