Commodity prices are expected to see a slight decline in 2024 and 2025 but will remain above pre-pandemic levels. Energy prices are forecasted to decrease by 3% in 2024 and an additional 4% in 2025 due to lower natural gas and coal prices offsetting higher oil prices. Agricultural prices are also anticipated to ease due to improved supply conditions, while metal prices are expected to remain stable in 2024 before a slight increase in 2025. Geopolitical risks, particularly potential conflicts in the Middle East impacting energy supplies, pose upside risks to commodity prices. In the first quarter of 2024, commodity prices fell by 3%, driven by lower energy prices alongside stable agriculture and metal prices. Brent crude oil prices surged to over $91 per barrel in April due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC-plus production cuts, while natural gas prices plummeted by nearly 40% year-on-year. However, a rebound in natural gas prices is expected in 2025. Food commodity prices declined by 4% early in 2024 but are forecasted to stabilize due to favorable supplies. Upside risks include conflicts affecting energy supplies, while downside risks include increased OPEC-plus supply and weaker global economic growth.
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